:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 802 km/s at 17/2214Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 077
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/10