:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 19/0158Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32688 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Oct, 21 Oct) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 077
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 078/078/080
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  005/005-005/005-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/35