:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 426 km/s at 20/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26846 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Oct) and active to major storm levels
on day three (24 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 078
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/072
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  005/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  016/022-018/024-027/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/45
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/35