:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 23/1014Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2698 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Oct) and active to
major storm levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 077
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 076/074/073
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct   NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  020/032-032/044-025/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/45/35