:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 801 km/s at 26/0110Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 25/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 25/2129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 26158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 078
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 078/077/076
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  039/058
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  032/048
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  024/030-019/024-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20