:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 728 km/s at 28/1109Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 28/1940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 28/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 46347 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Oct) and unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 079
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 078/080/083
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  015/020-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20