:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 01/2203Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 02/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10939 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Nov,
04 Nov, 05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 076
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 076/074/072
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  007/008-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/40/20