:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 04/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
05/0447Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3752 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 077
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 078/078/075
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  006/005-005/005-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15