:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 06/0535Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/0752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3163 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Nov, 09
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 076
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 075/075/078
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-016/020-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20