:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 317 km/s at 08/0030Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
08/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2098 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 077
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  010/012-011/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10