:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (12 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/1435Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 10/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 10/2200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled
to active levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 078
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 075/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  018/020-015/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20