:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 12/1817Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 12/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 078
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 082/080/078
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  015/082-010/080-007/078

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15