:Product: 1113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 13/0701Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 12/2327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 13/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10253 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (15 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (16 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 078
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  011/015-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10