:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov,
18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 578 km/s at 15/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Nov, 18 Nov) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (19 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 081
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 083/083/082
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  006/005-006/005-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20