:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov,
19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 17/1057Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6414 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels
on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 079
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 079/078/080
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  006/005-012/016-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20