:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 20/2006Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
20/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2716 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (22 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 076
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 075/078/080
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  008/008-013/020-025/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20