:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 20/2300Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
21/1951Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1664 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Nov) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 075
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 077/077/079
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  013/020-025/035-022/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20