:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 23/0040Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 078
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 079/079/080
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  016/022-016/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20