:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 24/0831Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/1523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 541 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 079
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 079/079/080
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  020/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  016/020-010/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10