:Product: 1126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 881 km/s at 26/1838Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 26/1315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25245 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 081
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 082/082/080
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  024/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  009/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10