:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 876 km/s at 26/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25265 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 083
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 084/083/083
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/15