:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0801Z from Region 2611 (N04W0*). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov,
30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 27/2100Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/1529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 41607 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 085
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05