:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 515 km/s at 01/2350Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/1337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9967 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 084
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 082/082/078
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  006/005-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/15