:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/1755Z from Region 2615 (S07W20). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 307 km/s at 03/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6344 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 082
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 080/080/078
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  007/008-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/20