:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec,
08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 06/1355Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
06/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3472 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (07
Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 080
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  016/020-016/020-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10