:Product: 1207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 07/2100Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 07/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
07/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1250 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09
Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 077
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  016/020-016/020-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20