:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 08/1716Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 08/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 08/0823Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Dec), unsettled
to active levels on day two (10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 075
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 075/075/070
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  016/020-014/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20