:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 570 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
13/1438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/2324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9650 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Dec, 15 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (16 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 071
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10