:Product: 1218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 18/0245Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 17/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
17/2311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1565 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (21 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 072
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  011/015-012/015-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/60