:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 394 km/s at 19/0645Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 528 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Dec), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (21 Dec) and active to minor storm levels on day
three (22 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 073
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 075/075/078
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  012/015-017/025-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/60/65