:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 380 km/s at 20/1910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/1837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/2051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Dec), active to
minor storm levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (23 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 075
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec 075/075/080
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  017/025-020/030-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/35