:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 770 km/s at 23/1631Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 22/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 23/1935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 19653 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 074
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 073/072/072
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/10