:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 26/2117Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15954 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (30 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 074
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 073/072/070
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/50