:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 27/2221Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12391 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (30 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 073
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 073/070/072
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  006/005-010/012-017/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/50/55