:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (30 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 29/0449Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15202 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 073
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 072/075/075
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  009/010-018/024-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/55/30