:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 29/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled to
active levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 074
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 075/075/074
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  015/020-015/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    55/30/40