:Product: 0124RSGA.txt :Issued: 2017 Jan 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2017 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/2124Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1001 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jan). III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jan 082 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 077 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-006/005-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/25