:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 778 km/s at 31/2316Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 01/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/0449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 15275 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 Feb, 03 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 076
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 076/076/075
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  014/018-014/016-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    45/35/35