:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/0500Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2343 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 076
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 076/078/078
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/30