:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 753 km/s at 02/0918Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 02/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22538 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 079
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 079/078/078
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  021/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  026/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  018/022-011/014-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/20