:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 380 km/s at 13/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3433 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 070
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10