:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/1949Z from Region 2645 (S09W91). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (08 Apr) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (09 Apr) and
expected to be very low on day three (10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 06/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 074
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  007/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/10