:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 12/0336Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1799 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (14 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 071
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 070/070/075
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  006/005-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/25/20