:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 798 km/s at 23/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/0615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 54298 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (25 Apr, 26
Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 080
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 080/080/082
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  024/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  015/020-015/020-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/60