:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 25/0153Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 52302 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 081
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 081/081/082
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  013/016-013/014-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/35/35