:Product: 0426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 25/2242Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 66472 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (29 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 080
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 080/081/081
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  010/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    35/20/10