:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 408 km/s at 30/0003Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/1854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8938 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (01 May, 03 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 077
Predicted   01 May-03 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  010/012-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/40