:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 19/0336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 May) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 072
Predicted   20 May-22 May 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        19 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  024/030-016/020-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05