:Product: 0520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
May, 22 May, 23 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 749 km/s at 20/1206Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 20/0830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 20/0631Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1445 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 May).

III.  Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 072
Predicted   21 May-23 May 072/074/074
90 Day Mean        20 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  013/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  020/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  016/020-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/10