:Product: 0521RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 May 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
May, 23 May, 24 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 21/1048Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 21/0507Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13008 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 May, 24 May).

III.  Event probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 May 074
Predicted   22 May-24 May 074/076/076
90 Day Mean        21 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May  023/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  011/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05